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Trump says:
Trump has upped the ante on India over its purchase of oil from Russia, warning of levying additional tariffs within the next “24 hours.”
“India has not been a good trading partner, because they do a lot of business with us, but we don’t do business with them. So we settled on 25 percent, but I think I’m going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours, because they’re buying Russian oil. They’re fueling the war machine,” Trump said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.
Trump has ramped up his attack after calling both New Delhi and Moscow “dead economies” last week. After slapping a 25% tariff on Indian goods, he has this week threatened to impose additional duties, citing New Delhi’s “buying massive amounts of Russian oil.”
Accused India
A day before, Trump accused India of selling Russian oil “on the open market for big profits.” “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday.
Earlier today, Russia slammed Trump for “illegally” exerting pressure on its allies like India, attempting to force them to cut trade ties with Moscow. Defending India’s right to choose its own trading partners, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “We hear many statements that are in fact threats, attempts to force countries to cut trade relations with Russia. We do not consider such statements to be legal.”
The India-US Trade Relationship: A Snapshot
While Trump’s comments are bold, India and the U.S. do share a robust economic relationship. The bilateral trade in goods and services between the two nations exceeded $191 billion in 2023, making the U.S. India’s largest trading partner. However, the trade relationship has not been without friction.
India has historically imposed higher tariffs on certain imports—particularly agricultural products, electronics, and motorcycles—citing the need to protect local industries. The U.S. has criticized these practices as unfair barriers that disadvantage American exporters.
In 2019, during Trump’s presidency, the U.S. withdrew India from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program, which allowed duty-free access to some Indian goods. That move affected over $5 billion worth of Indian exports.
Why Now?
Trump’s latest remarks come as both the U.S. presidential elections in 2024 and India’s growing trade and diplomatic ties with other nations, including Russia and China, remain in focus. Political analysts believe Trump is seeking to position himself as the only candidate capable of standing up to foreign economic practices he perceives as damaging to U.S. interests.
India’s recent push for self-reliance through initiatives like “Make in India” and the growing strength of Indian manufacturing sectors have also made the country a more formidable economic force—something Trump and other American politicians are watching closely.
Potential Fallout of Tariff Hikes
Should such tariff hikes be implemented, the ripple effects would be significant for both nations. India exports a wide range of goods to the U.S., including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering goods, and IT services. Higher tariffs could:
Raise prices for U.S. consumers
Hurt Indian exporters and small manufacturers
Disrupt supply chains
Strain diplomatic ties
Likewise, India could retaliate by imposing counter-tariffs, as it has done in the past. In 2019, India increased tariffs on 28 U.S. products, including almonds and apples, after the U.S. removed it from the GSP.
What’s Next?
As the 2024 U.S. election draws near, Trump’s statements are likely to grow sharper. Whether or not he returns to power, the pressure on India to lower tariffs and open its markets further will continue.
Meanwhile, India must navigate its position carefully—balancing national interests, global supply chains, and its strategic relationship with the U.S.
Trade wars, after all, rarely produce clear winners.
– Ends